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2025 Real Growth Predictions - With Junge Ma artwork

Podcast episode

2025 Real Growth Predictions - With Junge Ma

Let the Data Speak

With Junge Ma

About this episode

Where is the Australian property market heading as we closing out 2025?

Join Junge Ma as she shares three exciting growth predictions for the months ahead. In this episode, they explore a hotspot market that’s already thriving, a second wind market poised for recovery, and an early adopter market showing promising signs of growth.

They dive into the details of Townsville, Burnie, and Frankston, examining key indicators such as median house prices, days on market, and vacancy rates. With insights into market pressures and trends, Junge provides a clear picture of what to expect in these regions over the coming months.

If you’re an investor or simply curious about the property landscape, this episode is packed with valuable information. Tune in to discover where the best opportunities lie and how these markets are set to evolve.

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this podcast is general in nature and should not be considered as personal financial advice. The podcast host, guests, and contributors are not licensed financial advisors. Please seek professional financial advice that is tailored to your situation and circumstances before making any financial decisions.

Transcript

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This transcript was generated automatically and may contain small errors.

I'm going to share three growth predictions for the rest of 2025. We're going to be talking about a hotspot market that's already on fire, a second wind market that's shaping up for some serious growth, and an early adopter market that's already showing signs it's going to be supercharged in the near future. My name is Junge Ma, lead research analyst at InvestorKit. Let's get into it. Now that we're talking about growth in the coming six months, what we'll focus on will be price trend, days on market trend, inventory, vacancy rate, and we'll touch a bit on market cycle position.

For the hotspot market, we're talking about Townsville, one of the super hot North Queensland cities. Median house price now is around $556,000, having achieved 26% growth in the past year. Into 2025, the growth has slightly slowed a bit, but not much. If we look at the three-month rolling median price trend, over the first half of 2025, Townsville actually achieved 11% growth, and the trend line is still quite healthily going upward. And if we look at market pressure indicators, days on market is staying at around 12 days, not showing strong signs of going up quickly, and inventory level has been staying at around 1.

1, 1. 2 months of stock for more than half a year. So based on these indicators, the strong growth will most likely continue. In the rental market, vacancy rate is now 0. 8%.

It's been increasing gradually since 2023, likely because of the active investor purchases there. However, because of the high housing demand, we're not seeing any surge in vacancy rate, and 0. 8% is still a crisis level. And in terms of cycle position, over the last decade, annualized price growth was 4. 6%, still lower than the average 5% to 7% per year.

So given the high market pressure, we will likely see healthy growth, not just in the short term, but in the medium term as well. Now the second wind market, we're talking about Burnie in Tasmania. Burnie did really well before 2022, having been quiet from 2022 to 2024, but now we are seeing signs of recovery. Now the median house price is $475,000, having grown by 5. 6%.

That's already good, but it's actually speeding up. If we look at the three-month rolling median trend, in the past half a year, it actually achieved 9% increase in total. Days on market is now trending downward, vendor discount is trending downward, and at the same time, inventory level has been going down since early 2024, as number of listings declines and sales volume increases. In the rental market, vacancy rate has been extremely low over the past two years. Now it's only 0.

3%, showing very healthy housing demand in that area. And in terms of cycle position, Burnie's last 10-year annualized growth was actually very high, 7. 8%. So while we are seeing a recovery in growth pace, if market pressure is right, it will likely be a period of very healthy growth instead of a boom in the short term. And now, our early adopter market, let's look at Frankston.

Frankston itself technically is not an early adopter anymore because it is already heating up, but it is within Greater Melbourne, and in Greater Melbourne, most of the regions are still in an early adopter phase. So Frankston, median house price now is $775,000. On paper, last one-year growth was only around 2%, but if we look at the three-month rolling median, in the past half a year, it actually has increased by 4. 6%. Days on market is 22 now.

While it's not actively going down, it's one of the lowest in the Greater Melbourne region. Inventory is below two months of stock, down by 18% in the past year, as number of listings is largely trending downward, while there is a surge in sales volume. In the rental market, vacancy rate is increasing. Vacancy rate is 0. 8% now.

There's a slight increase over the past few months, just in line with Greater Melbourne. However, the increase is just slight, especially when you compare it with many other regions in Melbourne, where vacancy rates surged from below 1% to 1. 5% or even above 2% in recent months. In the past 10 years, Frankston's annualized growth was 6. 8%.

It is within the long-term average range of 5% to 7%, but it is actually higher than Melbourne's average of under 5% per year growth. From this, we can tell Frankston's past growth has been more healthier than Melbourne, but it's not extremely overheated, so given high or improving market pressure, we can still see very healthy growth ahead. So three regions, Townsville, the already hot market. In the coming six months, growth will likely to continue with the current fast pace. Burnie, the second wind market.

Now it's already achieving close to average annual growth, but as market pressure increases in the coming six months, we will likely see higher than average growth. Then last, Frankston. Past one-year growth wasn't really high, but the market pressure is increasing rapidly. In the coming six months, I won't be surprised if we see above average growth in Frankston. But again, Frankston is the leading region in terms of recovery in Greater Melbourne.

While Frankston can be growing fast in the coming six months, it might take Greater Melbourne some more time to reach that level of growth. Let me know of your thoughts in the comments below. I'm Junge Ma, Lead Research Analyst at InvestorKit. I'll see you next time.

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