New build or established? Looking beyond the tax deduction

realestate.com.au reported on InvestorKit modelling on 23 June 2026 comparing a new property with an established property after the Budget’s proposed changes to property taxation. The analysis asked whether a larger tax benefit necessarily produces a stronger overall investment.

What the model compared

The reported scenarios each began with a $750,000 purchase, held for ten years and then sold. The model included capital growth, vacancy, depreciation, financing, tax incentives and capital gains tax on disposal.

Under those assumptions, the established-property scenario produced a net total return of $266,000, compared with $166,000 for the new build. The new build had a $108,000 cash-flow advantage during the holding period, but the established property’s capital-growth advantage after capital gains tax was larger.

A scenario comparison, not a guaranteed result

Those figures are modelled outcomes, not observed client returns or a prediction that every established property will outperform every new home. Changing growth, vacancy, costs or tax assumptions changes the result.

The wider article includes another provider’s perspective on new-build due diligence, including builder quality, contracts and inclusions. Its useful common ground is the need to test the whole purchase against the investor’s goals and resources, with appropriate tax and lending advice.