🏠 Is Australia’s Housing Supply on Track?

Cameron Kusher on Interest Rates, Supply Crisis and Forward-Looking Indicators

🎙️ Episode Recap

In this Property Nerds episode, host Arjun Paliwal sits down with economist Cameron Kusher (ex-PropTrack and CoreLogic) to unpack the state of Australia’s housing supply, why new construction is lagging, and what forward-looking data investors should be tracking in 2025 and beyond.

❌ Australia Is Missing Its Housing Target—Badly

The Federal Government’s Housing Accord aims for 1.2 million new homes over 5 years. But as Cameron reveals:

• We’re on track to fall short by 250,000 to 350,000 homes.
• When adjusted for demolitions, the gap is even wider.
• Supply constraints are hitting both new construction and established housing stock.

“We’ve never built 240,000 homes per year before—and nothing in our current system suggests we will now.”

🏗️ Why New Builds Are Lagging

Even with strong demand, new housing projects are stalling. Why?

• Construction costs surged by 35–40% post-COVID.
• Interest rates reached a 12-year high in 2023, making financing harder.
• Pre-sales hurdles: Developers often need 60% pre-sales to break ground—tough when buyer confidence is shaky.
• Skilled labour shortages and competition with government infrastructure projects divert trades away from housing.

🏘️ The Silent Crisis: Lack of Established Listings

It’s not just new builds. Existing home supply has tightened, especially in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth:

• Sellers hesitate to list because there’s “nowhere to go.”
• Investors hold off as they wait for more confidence or rental certainty.
• As Arjun notes, off-market deals with rent-back clauses are increasingly used just to unlock stock.

“We’re facing a triple whammy: low vacancy, low new builds, and low established listings. This makes buying the right investment harder than ever.”

🔍 Migration Pressures and Housing Policy Misalignment

• Net overseas migration is at historic highs.
• Most migrants rent before buying—flooding rental demand in already tight markets.
• Universities benefit from international students, but many don’t provide adequate student housing—pushing them into the general market.

“Migration policy and housing policy are not aligned. That’s the real issue.”

📉 Interest Rates: Where to Next?

Cameron forecasts:

• Two to three more 25-basis-point rate cuts by end of 2025.
• This would bring the cash rate down from 3.85% to around 3%, lifting borrowing power by 2–3% with each cut.
• Inflation is nearly back in the RBA’s target range, making rate cuts more viable.

📊 Forward-Looking Data Points That Actually Matter

Kusher’s top indicators:

🧠 AI, SEO and the Future of Real Estate Search

• AI is not a fad—it’s redefining how people search, analyse and buy property.
• GPT-style AI will likely supersede traditional real estate portals.
• Agencies that invest in SEO and AI optimisation will bypass listing giants and own their audience directly.

📍 GEO Insights: How This Affects Investors in Every Market

While the macro trends are national, local implications vary:

• Brisbane now outpaces Melbourne in median prices, a shift few expected.
• Adelaide and Perth have extremely tight vacancy rates, making it hard for buyers to transition.
• Melbourne has more listings, but stamp duty and investor taxes are dampening buyer appetite.

Investors need to match strategy to supply conditions—whether that’s off-market purchases in Brisbane, rental-focused plays in Adelaide, or value rebounds in Melbourne.

📞 Ready to Invest Smarter?

InvestorKit helps investors decode forward-looking data and find investment-grade properties in under-supplied, high-performance suburbs—across Australia.

👉 Book your free discovery call and let our Research and Acquisition team show you how we’re securing results even in a tight supply market.